To develop a conceptual model for lung cancer rates to describe and quantify observed differences between Sweden and USA contra Japan.
A two-parameter lognormal distribution was used to describe the lung cancer rates over time after a 1-year period of smoking. Based on that risk function in combination with smoking prevalence, the calculated age-standardized rates were adjusted to fit reported data from Japan, Sweden, and the USA by parameter variation.
The risk of lung cancer is less in Japan than in Sweden and in the USA at the same smoking prevalence and intensity. Calculated age-specific rates did also fit well to reported rates without further parameter adjustments.
This new type of cancer model appears to have high degree of predictive value. It is recommended that data from more countries are studied to identify important life-style factors related to lung cancer.