Science. 2013 Oct 4;342(6154):127-132.
Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact.
Source
Center for Complex Network Research, Department of Physics, Department of Biology, and Department of Computer Science, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA.Abstract
The
lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to
gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a
fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation
patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics
of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of
papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve,
indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal
pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms
that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of
influence that may have potential policy implications.
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